The IEA’s World Energy Outlook forecasts that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix until 2030, including large economies such as the EU, Japan, the USA and China. A growing concern among many countries is security of energy supply as well as finding technologies that replace or improve the efficiencies of fossil fuels.

Security of energy supply is about safeguarding a stable and affordable supply of energy to end-users. It is widely acknowledged that the oil and natural gas markets provide risks that undermine security of supply in the medium and long term. In response to these issues, governments design policies to improve energy security. One of the major trends in recent years is the increased attention for utilisation of coal in different sectors of the economy, with global coal-based power capacity additions up to 2030 projected to be 1400 GW. This study aims to shed more light on the impact of coal utilisation on energy supply security, an area where scientific research is lacking.

In order to design effective policy, indicators of security of supply are being developed, although no generally accepted method exists and quantification remains challenging. This study used two indicators published in the international literature. It was concluded that increased use of coal and renewable energy may significantly improve energy security, but for coal the impact depends on the indicator used. The impact can be explained by the substitution of oil or gas by the less risky energy sources of coal or renewables, which come from either indigenous sources or stable import regions, and on the other hand the change in energy supply diversity.

Power generation by energy source in different world regions

There also are serious questions raised in this study on the actual reserves of coal that are economically available to meet an increasing demand for the use of coal in China and elsewhere. Recent high coal prices have not yet spurred new investments in new reserves. Spending on research and development in new coal mining and exploration technologies that could increase production has in many places declined in the past two decades. However, in China and the USA there has been substantial investment.

The key conclusions of this report are:
l The statistics used for measuring coal reserves could be more standardised and transparent with one option being to investigate development of an internationally accepted methodology for measuring and assessing coal reserves.
l There is a lack of accepted methods for modelling energy security and the role of primary energy sources and therefore more quantified research modelling work on coal and its role in energy security are needed.

Energy security and the role of coal
John Kessels, Stefan Bakker, Bas Wetzelaer
CCC/131, ISBN 978-92-9029-450-4, February 2008
£255 non-member countries
£85 member countries
£42.50 educational price